always start from index fund as benchmark.

There exists competition among index funds. Minimizing tracking error is their ultimate goal.

TE=SD(Rfund−Rindex) TE = SD(R_{fund} - R_{index})

Reason for tracking error:

  • 基金申赎、现金储备
  • 指数成分股变更
  • 停盘、涨跌停

How to do optimization:

  • Leave out some stocks

Authorized Participant:

  • Management Fee

Survivor bias: the whole market should include those that expires. Incubation bias: those funds that performs well will be sold.

Long term performance works.

  • Government Regulation

  • Self-regulation:行业协会会是最主要的监管来源。杜绝不正当竞争、保持行业健康发展;

  • dedicated short(亏的少就行)

  • 并购套利:如果发布了并购的事件,那么股价应该会涨到接近于并购的价格(不会完全达到,因为并购可能失败)